More Travel Trends for 2017

‘Tis the season to look forward. As the year comes to a close, travel pros and journalists give their projections and observations on the future of travel and tourism. Here’s some of the latest, plus my thoughts.

Responsible Travel released predictions for various destinations, and trends they believe will affect travel in 2017, “driven by an increasingly polarized tourism industry.” Let’s see how they support that assertion.

Because of Brexit and the Trump presidential election, Responsible Travel (RT) believes travel will be more polarized than ever before: One camp is made of travelers ‘dominated by a climate of fear and mistrust of strangers‘ (really?) while the other side craves authentic experiences and adventures (this I buy).

According to RT, places viewed as ‘unsafe’ will be avoided by many travelers, plus travel companies will capitalize on their fears. These businesses will market trips that provide a safe ‘home-away-from-home’, removed from local people and real experiences. That may be the case, but it’s nothing new. Some tourists have always preferred to go to ‘safe’ destinations and there are many places that cater to them. An example are the all-inclusive resorts in Mexico, where one does not have to venture past the guarded gates. But even then, the tourists have to get to and from the airport, so there is no true guarantee of safety. Travel in itself always has a level of risk.

Conversely, Responsible Travel cites it has seen rapid 22% growth of folks craving authentic, intrepid experiences, driven by the ‘experience economy’. One example: The company had a nearly 50% increase in revenue from trips to Iran, cited by their guests as a more ‘unusual’ destination. This trend, if it is an industry wide direction, is positive. I have always thought that travelers who actively seek the local experience and to interact with locals helps to bridge cultures.

On to a different report. Liz Weiss, travel editor at U.S. News, penned a feature on a number of trends she gleaned from various travel experts.

Artificial Intelligence Tools Are Improving and Expanding

Travel sites have long been toying with the idea of implementing real-time messaging platforms and personalized automation technology. For example, Google’s AI personal assistance or Siri can book travel plans. Other artificial intelligence tools to watch include Lola, an on-demand travel app that lets you research or book your travel plans on the go, and Expedia, which is planning to launch an AI platform for personal messaging and customer assistance.

Go Green

Consumer and industry interest in ‘going green’ is causing hotels, tour operators and outfitters to use responsible practices plus encourage travelers to plan low-impact getaways. Supposedly people are choosing to travel shorter distances to reduce their carbon footprint. “One trans-Atlantic flight equals a year’s worth of driving, so consider planning an adventure closer to home,” stated Rebecca Warren, managing editor at Lonely Planet. Okay, I get that, but Machu Picchu or the Great Barrier Reef are not just down a drive from where I live. If I want to experience them, I have to fly there. Later in this section Warren states “…and perhaps one of the most immediate ways to help (reduce carbon footprint) is by choosing to visit destinations that will benefit the most from your tourist dollars,” she adds, pointing to destinations like Nepal as a place that’s benefited from tourism money getting funneled into the local economy. Good point, but back to her earlier statement; I can’t drive to Nepal. Kind of contradicting, but the main point for travelers is to be more aware of how your actions affect the world and local environments and cultures and act accordingly.

Attraction Bookings Go Digital

More restaurant reservations, tours and activities are being booked via online distributors. Airbnb’s recently launched its Trips app, which help travelers book experiences and activities while in destinations world wide. This will be a game changer for those businesses, especially in popular destinations. For smaller towns and places that lack critical mass it is yet to be seen as how these types of apps will make an impact.

High-Paying Loyalists Will Be Rewarded

Weiss writes “With frequent-flier program changes among all three legacy carriers (Delta, United and American) that reward travelers based on price paid rather than distance flown, travelers are starting to realize that “when airlines say loyal, they mean spend money,” Clampet says. Another interesting trend is a brewing battle between legacy carriers and low-cost airlines such as Spirit and Frontier airlines. With bare-bones fares like United’s new Basic Economy option, which allows travelers to book discounted tickets but sacrifice the opportunity to use overhead storage space or select a seat prior to check-in, airlines are “catering to people buying on price,”… elite frequent fliers who participate in the program will have the privilege of placing large bags into overhead bins, though they will not earn elite-qualifying miles with basic fares.” To the rich goes the spoils, so to speak.

Cuba Tourism Will Soar…But At a Cost

Cuba is on the radar for Americans, though it has been a popular destination for Canadians and others for years. I was interested in going there, but decided not to after reading a New York Times article revealing how the surge in visitors is limiting local access to affordable fruits and vegetables. I don’t want to be a part of that problem so I’m taking Cuba off my travel list for the time being.

Finally, while not forecasting travel trends for next year, Google recently revealed the year’s top “trending” travel queries—searches that had the highest spike in traffic over a sustained period in 2016. Trending searches included wellness retreats, solo travel and ride sharing services. I wager many of these will continue to be factors in 2017.

So as Christmas approaches, I wish you all a joyous holiday season. Make it a point to explore the world in 2017. Whether it be a town just around the corner or somewhere on another continent, amazing people, scenery and cultures await. Get out there!

More articles on 2017 travel trends:

Travel Trends for 2017 Part One

How Will Trump Affect Travel and Tourism?

 

How Will Trump Affect Travel And Tourism?

Since Donald Trump won the presidential election, there has been a lot of speculation as to how his policies will affect our country. Earlier this month, I started a series of blog posts on travel trends for 2017. Let’s review how this election could affect travel. Here are just four examples:

• Travel boycotts to the U.S.: There could be boycotts of travelers to not come to the U.S. because of Trump winning the election. In a Travelzoo survey conducted in the U.K. before the election, one in five respondents said they would “definitely” not consider America as a travel destination if Mr. Trump was elected. If those respondents are typical of the nearly four million Brits that visit the U.S. each year, the numbers of visitors could drop by more than one million. This would be unfortunate as our country is truly worth visiting.

• Americans traveling abroad. Americans will continue to travel. Travel Zoo also reports that of their U.S. members surveyed prior to the election, 61 percent stated they will travel just as much as they did in 2017 and 16 percent will travel even more if Donald Trump were elected. They are concerned though of how they will be treated. According to that survey, sixty-nine percent of those polled are worried that the election negatively impacts how U.S. citizens are perceived overseas. One in five consider safety and security a top concern when abroad. When I went to Australia last April, I was bombarded with questions about Mr. Trump and concerns about him being president. I can only imagine what Americans are dealing with now as they travel abroad. But it’s an opportunity for Americans to have thoughtful discussions with people they meet overseas on American politics and culture.

• Trade: Trump wants to renegotiate trade agreements and limit travel of certain foreign nationals to increase homeland security. But as president he will have to work with congress on his policies. Even with a Republican controlled legislative branch, I believe the election rhetoric in a number of areas will be tempered. There is concern that the popular visa waiver program our industry has fought hard to implement and sustain will be weakened. I am hopeful that will not be the case. Trump is pro-business, so as a tourism industry we have to demonstrate how travel to the U.S. is vital to our economy.

• Travel related infrastructure: According to U.S. Travel Association CEO Roger Dow, “Mr. Trump demonstrated throughout his campaign that travel and infrastructure issues have his attention…. Trump has explicitly highlighted the challenges facing our nation’s airports and our aviation security system. He has voiced great enthusiasm for modernizing our roads, rails and airports with his promise to invest $500 billion in infrastructure reform.” Let’s not forget that the president elect is invested in the tourism and hospitality business, being a partner in numerous ventures including hotels, attractions, golf courses and even a winery.

So where does it leave the travel industry with a Trump Presidency? It’s too soon to tell. There could be challenges and there could be opportunities. I strive to be an optimist. Overall, I think travel and tourism will continue to be an economic and job creating engine on the local, national and international stage, regardless of who is president.

And for those international travelers who are thinking of boycotting a visit to the U.S. because of the future president, I close this with these thoughts penned by travel writer Chris Leadbeater this week:

“…the USA is no worse a travel destination today than it was yesterday, or than it will be in November 2020 or January 2025.

The Grand Canyon is as wide and magnificent as ever, the San Francisco skyline still an architectural wonder, the bars of Brooklyn unwaveringly chic, Route 66 still a meandering road-trip ribbon across the landscape, Colorado still a snowy oasis for skiers.

Travel really does broaden the mind – and the world could use some broadening today.”

Photo: Evan Vucci, Associated Press

Travel Trends for 2017 Part One

As 2016 comes to a close, organizations, professionals and scholars will offer their research, projections and sometimes plain guesses as to what 2017 will bring in travel and tourism. In the coming months I’ll share what I learn and gather. So let’s jump in!

Just this week AARP released boomer travel trends for 2017. In September they conducted a  15-minute online survey among males and females age 18-plus who have taken at least one leisure trip in the past two years.  AARP stated that the final data was weighted to the U.S. Census for analysis. Their results:

General Travel Insights

• Travel in 2017 looks very similar to what was anticipated in 2016
• Most Boomers (99%) will take at least one leisure trip in 2017, with an average of five or more trips expected throughout the year.
• Most (51%) expect to only travel domestically, but a significant portion are hoping to travel both domestically and internationally (43%).
• The majority of travel is anticipated in the Spring and Summer of 2017, and to a lesser degree in the Fall, regardless of destination.
• For Boomers, Bucket List trips are the most popular motivation for an international trip, while domestic trips are a combination of Summer vacations, Multi-generational trips, Weekend Getaways, and Holiday travel.
• With all the trips anticipated for 2017, it is important to note that most (~85%) have yet to be booked, meaning Boomers are still in the planning or idea phase.
• Boomers appear confident about making travel arrangements, as 49% report not finding anything particularly difficult to take care of in regards to their travel plans.
• Among those who noted an issue, budgeting challenges top the list.
• Boomers are not avid users of online resources for travel planning and booking, especially compared to younger generations.  Among those using online resources, the most popular sites include Trip Advisor, Expedia, Travelocity, Yelp, and Google Maps.
• That said, 41% will book online at the airline/hotel/car website.  This is most likely driven by the fact that most Boomers are members of at least one loyalty program.  In fact, 82% are currently members of an airline loyalty program.
• More often than not (~70% Always/Mostly), Boomers will book their travel (flight, hotel, car) with their loyalty program provider.
• And although many continue to indicate a desire to travel more in 2017 than they did in 2016, a handful of barriers remain in the way; cost (43%), health (34%), and security concerns (28%) top the list.

Trip Specifics

• Most Boomers are looking for a laid back and relaxing trip to give them the opportunity to spend quality time with friends and family.
• To do so, Boomers are planning to escape to Mexico, the Caribbean, and/or the British Isles (UK, Ireland) for their upcoming international trips. Their domestic trips, although covering a variety of cities, are most often being planned for a Florida or California destination.
• Regarding authentic experiences, although Boomers would like to eat a meal with locals (50%), or tour with locals (40% among international travelers), they are not as open to staying with locals, domestically or abroad (18%).
• As seen in past research, among Boomers who are still working, approximately 40% do not anticipate taking all of their vacation days.  And when they do vacation, 40% feel it is at least somewhat important to stay connected to work while away, which is why many anticipate spending at least 10% of their vacation time working.

Source: AARP Online

 

Will Falling Gas Prices Drive More Travel?

Been to the gas pumps lately? Finally, relief for the wallet, if only temporarily. The average price for a gallon of gas nationwide was $2.14 as of January 12th.  That’s the lowest it’s been since May 2009 says the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a decline of 40% percent from last summer.

Will lower gas prices mean more travel this year? First let’s look at airfares. Bob McAdoo, an airlines analyst for Imperial Capital, said in a recent story on New Jersey.com that airlines have no incentive to reduce ticket prices just because fuel costs fall. Partially it’s because flights are mostly full,  a matter of supply and demand. “You’re seeing a drop in gasoline prices because we have a surplus in oil. We don’t have a surplus in passengers seats,” he said. “There’s no reason (for airlines) to think about lowering the prices.” Also, other operating costs for the airlines are not falling.

What about other forms of transportation? I would wager other major travel carriers like cruise ships will not be reducing their prices anytime soon, much for the same reasons. Amtrak is experiencing solid ridership on many routes, so I doubt they will change their pricing, even if people opt to drive their cars rather than ride the rails.

They key question is what affect lower fuel costs will have on people traveling for pleasure. According to the U.S. Travel Association,  nearly eight in ten (79%) of leisure trips were by car in 2012, so auto travel is critical to the travel and tourism industry.  But like the airlines, fuel prices alone are not the only travel expense vacationers face when they hit the road. There’s lodging, food, shopping, recreation, attractions and the like, and indicators show many of those costs will rise in 2015. For example, Smith Travel Research projects that U.S. hotel occupancy in 2015 will reach nearly 65% — the highest in 20 years. That means higher room rates: the average daily hotel room rate will jump 5.7% in 2015, the largest increase since 2007.  Savings in fuel costs may be needed to cover other travel related costs.

And there are reports that declining prices may have bottomed out. In a January 16th online feature by Claudia Assis for MarketWatch,  she states fuel prices could creep up in the coming months due to such factors decreasing fuel supply and increased demand as summer approaches.

So I guess the old saying ‘time will tell’ applies. Regardless, given the success of 2014 I am confident that 2015 will be a robust year for the travel and tourism industry.